Gushiraho amajwi yo kugabanya ibiciro muri Nzeri? Ijambo rya Powell mucyumweru gitaha Symposium ya Jackson Hole Ignites Ibiteganijwe ku Isoko!

Ku ya 23 Kanama, FederalIkigegaChairman Jerome Powell azatanga ijambo ryingenzi mu nama nyunguranabitekerezo y’ubukungu ya Jackson Hole, ibirori byabaye intandaro y’amasoko y’imari ku isi. Nk’ibirori ngarukamwaka bya banki nkuru, biteganijwe ko bizashyiraho amajwi ku cyemezo cy’ibiciro cyo muri Nzeri kandi kizaba umwanya ukomeye mu kugena politiki y’ifaranga.

Imizi Yamateka ya Jackson Hole
Jackson Hole, umujyi muto ukikijwe n'imisozi irimo urubura, yakira "ingendo" zo mu isi y’imari buri Kanama. Uyu muco watangiye mu 1982, ubwo Perezida wa Federasiyo ya Federasiyo, Paul Volcker, umurobyi w’isazi ukunda cyane, yahitaga ahabereye inama.

Volcker ntabwo yari umurobyi kabuhariwe gusa ahubwo yari n'umuvugurura wihariye wa politiki yifaranga. Mugihe cyifaranga ryinshi, yigeze kuzamura igipimo cyinyungu kugera kuri 20% mugihe kimwe, sucIYIgusebanya kugabanya ifaranga rikabije hamwe nubuyobozi bukomeye buteganijwe.

Kuva icyo gihe, Symposium ya Jackson Hole imaze kuba icyamamare mu isi y’imari, hamwe n’ibyemezo byinshi bikomeye byashizwe hano. Mu gihe cy’ibibazo by’Uburusiya mu 1998, Perezida wa Federasiyo ya Federasiyo, Alan Greenspan, yahuye na rwihishwa na ba perezida b’akarere ka Federasiyo mu nama, bituma igabanuka rikabije ry’ibiciro. Muri 2010, Ben Bernanke yatangaje ivuka rya QE2 hano, atangaza isi.

Powell's Jackson Hole Akanya
Umwaka ushize, ijambo Powell yavugiye mu nama nyunguranabitekerezo ya Jackson Hole ryerekanye imyifatire ya hawkish, ryongera gushimangira intego y’ifaranga rya 2% kandi ryerekana ko izamuka ry’ibiciro ari ngombwa.

Ariko, ibihe byarahindutse. Ubukungu buriho buhura n’iterambere ridindiza, kandi igitutu cy’ifaranga kimaze kugabanuka, bituma isoko ryizera cyane ko Federasiyo izatangira kugabanya ibiciro.

Ijambo rya Powell muri iki gihe rishobora kwibanda ku miterere y’ubukungu iriho, imikorere y’isoko ry’umurimo, ndetse n’ifaranga ry’ifaranga.

Urebye iterambere ryagurishijwe vuba kugurisha hamwe namakuru yambere asaba akazi, arashobora gutanga uburinganire bwuzuye mubyerekeranye nubukungu. Hagati aho, isoko rizashakisha ibimenyetso bijyanye n’igipimo cy’igabanuka ry’ibiciro, harebwa niba hazabaho kugabanuka ku ngingo 50-zitunguranye.

Umwaka ushize, insanganyamatsiko ya Powell yari ifite insanganyamatsiko igira iti: "Ubukungu bw’ubukungu," bushimangira ko politiki y’ifaranga ikomeza kandi ihamye. Uyu mwaka, arashobora gushingira kuri urwo rufatiro, akanasobanura byinshi ku isuzuma rya Federasiyo ku bijyanye n'ubukungu bwifashe muri iki gihe n'ingamba zo gusubiza.

Ingaruka zishobora kubaho
Amateka numwarimu mwiza. Ijambo ryose ryingenzi muri Symposium ya Jackson Hole ryaherekejwe n’imihindagurikire idasanzwe ku isoko. Ijambo rya QE2 rya Bernanke mu mwaka wa 2010 ryateye imbaraga zikomeye ku masoko y’imari ku isi; umwaka wa 2012 yerekana "QE ubuziraherezo" yohereje isoko kuri roller coaster. Ijambo rya Powell ryamagambo umwaka ushize naryo ryateje ihungabana rikomeye ku isoko.

Niba ijambo rya Powell muri iki gihe ryerekana ko igabanuka ry’ibiciro bigaragara, isoko rishobora kubisobanura nkigisubizo cyo kudindiza ubukungu, bityo bikazamura umutungo w’ingaruka. Ariko, niba iryo jambo rishimangiye, gushimangira ingaruka z’ifaranga, isoko rishobora gushidikanya ku nzira ya politiki ya Federasiyo, bigatuma habaho ihungabana ry’imigabane n’inguzanyo.

Byongeye kandi, ijambo rya Powell rishobora no guhindura icyerekezo cya politiki y’ifaranga ry’ibindi bihugu. Muri iki gihe ubukungu bwunze ubumwe ku isi, ibyemezo bya Federasiyo ntabwo bigira ingaruka kuri Amerika gusa ahubwo bigira n'ingaruka zikomeye ku bukungu bw'isi.