Powell azaba Volcker ya kabiri?
23/6/2022
Kurota Garuka Kuri 1970
Ku wa gatatu, Banki nkuru y’igihugu yazamuye igipimo cy’inyungu ku ngingo 75 shingiro, iyi ikaba ari yo ntambwe nini mu myaka mirongo itatu ishize yo gukumira ifaranga ryinshi.
Vuba aha, ifaranga rimaze imyaka 40 hejuru y’amezi menshi mu gihe cyakwitwa igihe kirekire cy’ifaranga ryinshi, rikaba ryibutsa ikibazo kitigeze kibaho cyadutse mu myaka ya za 70.
Muri icyo gihe, igipimo cy’ifaranga ry’Amerika cyigeze kuzamuka kugera kuri 15%, ubwiyongere bwa GDP bwaragabanutse, ubushomeri bwiyongera.Icyakora, Banki nkuru y’igihugu yahungabanije guhangana n’ifaranga n’akazi, ibyo bigatuma ifaranga ryiyongera ndetse n’iterambere ry’ubukungu ridindira.
Paul Volcker, icyo gihe wari umuyobozi wa Banki nkuru y’igihugu, ni we wafashije rwose Amerika kwikuramo amakuba akomeye mu myaka ya za 1980 - yatsinze ibitekerezo byose bitavuga rumwe kandi ashyiraho politiki yo kugabanya ubukana akoresheje inkuba.Igipimo cy'ubushomeri cyavuye kuri 6% kigera kuri 11% mu gihe gito nyuma yo kuzamura inyungu ziri hejuru ya 10%.
Muri icyo gihe, abubatsi bamwoherereje amabati manini y’ibiti mu rwego rwo kwigaragambya, abacuruza imodoka bamwoherereza imfunguzo z’imodoka nshya ntawashakaga, kandi abahinzi bari muri za romoruki bavuza induru hanze y’inyubako yera ya marble yera.Ariko nta na kimwe muri ibyo cyayobye Mr Volcker.
Nyuma, yazamuye igipimo cy’inyungu kugera kuri 20%, agabanya ifaranga rikomeye cyane muri kiriya gihe, ikibazo cyashoboye kurangira, ubukungu bwasubiye inyuma, ari nabwo bwashizeho urufatiro mu myaka icumi yakurikiyeho yo gutera imbere.
Umwanya wa Volcker uraza?
Gusimbuka kwa Federasiyo ku nyungu kuva muri Werurwe byatumye amasoko ahinda umushyitsi: umwanya wa Volcker wongeye kugera.
Ariko, birashimishije kubona Federasiyo ubwayo itigeze igaragaza neza ikimenyetso cyo kuzamura igipimo cya 75BP ku isoko mbere y’inama y’ibiciro, kandi birakwiriye kuvuga ko iki gikorwa kitarenze uko byari byitezwe.
Ariko guhera ku ya 15 Kamena, isoko ryaguzwe neza muri iri zamuka ry’ibiciro, ku munsi izamuka ry’ibiciro ryamanutse, isoko ryabaye inkuru mbi kandi imigabane n’imigabane muri Amerika byazamutse hamwe.
Intandaro yibi bintu ni uko amakuru ya CPI yarenze ibyateganijwe ahanini na raporo mu kinyamakuru Wall Street Journal - ikinyamakuru kizwi ku izina rya "Federal Reserve News Agency".
Raporo yerekanye ko raporo z’ihungabana ry’ifaranga mu minsi yashize zishobora gutuma abayobozi ba Federasiyo batekereza ku izamuka ry’amanota 75 ritunguranye mu nama yo kuri iki cyumweru.
Iyi ngingo yateje umuvurungano ku isoko, ndetse n’abakomeye mu nganda Goldman Sachs na JPMorgan bakurikije ubuyobozi bwe maze bavugurura ibyo bateganyirije ijoro ryose.
Isoko ryatangiye kugiciro cyihuse mukuzamuka kwa 75 BP muri iyi nama y’ibiciro, kandi izamuka ry’ibiciro bya Federasiyo muri Kamena ryahise ryohereza amahirwe yo kuzamuka amanota 75 yazamutse kugera kuri 90%, uzi ko iyo mibare yari 3.9% gusa a icyumweru gishize.
Kuva icyo gihe, birasa nkaho Fed iyobowe nisoko: yazamuye ibiciro amanota 75 shingiro idakoze mbere "ibiteganijwe".
Byongeye kandi, Powell yanasohoye ubutumwa buteye urujijo muri iyo nama: Ingingo 75 zifatizo z’izamuka ry’ibiciro ntizisanzwe kubona, ariko izamuka rya 75bp rishobora kuba muri Nyakanga.Yatekereje ko ibyifuzo by’ifaranga ry’umuguzi byugarijwe n’ingaruka ziterwa n’ifaranga ry’ibanze, ariko hagati aho, yavuze kandi ko igipimo cy’ifaranga ry’iki gihe kitagize ingaruka ku byateganijwe mu buryo ubwo ari bwo bwose.
Imvugo zitesha umutwe hamwe nibisubizo bidasobanutse kimwe nigipimo cyo gusunika ibyemezo byose kumibare yakurikiyeho byatugoye kubona ubukana nubushikame busa mukurwanya hyperinflation ituruka kuri Powell nkibya Volcker.
Kugeza ubu, icyo isoko itinya cyane ntabwo ari ukuzamuka kw'ibiciro, ahubwo ni Fed itera urujijo.
Ni ibihe bintu bishobora kurangira i kuzamura ibiciro?
Muri Werurwe, umugambi w'akadomo ka FOMC werekanye ko Fed izamura ibiciro buhoro buhoro mu myaka ibiri iri imbere;mugihe ikibanza cyadomo cya FOMC cyerekana ko nyuma yo kuzamuka kwinshi muri uyu mwaka n’izamuka rito ry’umwaka utaha, biteganijwe ko Fed izatangira kugabanya ibiciro umwaka utaha.
Ariko ifaranga, kugabanuka, kwiyongera byagize "inyabutatu idashoboka", FOMC yongeye gushimangira ko gukemura ikibazo cy’ifaranga ari yo ntego nyamukuru, niba intego nyamukuru iriho ari ukurinda ifaranga n’ubukungu, noneho birashoboka ko ubukungu bwifashe nabi.
Kugumya kugabanuka kw'ifaranga buri gihe ni umukino, uzirikana ko ibikorwa bya Bwana Volcker byaherekejwe n'ibihe bibiri, kandi yerekanye akamaro ka Federasiyo kubungabunga ibiciro bihamye.Gusa nukubungabunga ihame ryibiciro hazabaho iterambere rirambye.
Ubu birasa nkaho bishoboka gusa ko iterambere ryifaranga ry’ifaranga, izamuka rikabije ry’ubushomeri, cyangwa ikibazo cy’ubukungu cyangwa isoko bizahagarika Federasiyo
Ariko kubera ko ibigo byinshi kandi bitanga umuburo w’ubukungu, isoko rishobora gutangira buhoro buhoro igiciro cy’ingaruka mbi ku bukungu, kandi dushobora kwizera ko umusaruro w’imyaka 10 w’inguzanyo z’Amerika wagabanutse munsi ya 2,5% na mbere y’umwaka urangiye.
Ariko, umwijima mbere yuko bucya ushobora kuba ukomeye.
Itangazo: Iyi ngingo yahinduwe na AAA LENDINGS;amwe mumashusho yakuwe kuri enterineti, umwanya wurubuga ntuhagarariwe kandi ntushobora gusubirwamo nta ruhushya.Hariho ingaruka ku isoko kandi ishoramari rigomba kwitonda.Iyi ngingo ntabwo igizwe ninama zishoramari kugiti cye, kandi ntizita ku ntego zihariye zishoramari, uko ubukungu bwifashe cyangwa ibikenerwa nabakoresha kugiti cyabo.Abakoresha bagomba gusuzuma niba ibitekerezo, ibitekerezo cyangwa imyanzuro ikubiye hano ihuye nibibazo byabo.Shora ukurikije ingaruka zawe.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Jun-23-2022