Kubera iki Yakoze Fed Ryariye Cut May Not Be Far Ainzira
07/06/2022
Bigufi bigufi: Federasiyo izahindura i guta agaciro !
Mugihe abaguzi bishimiye kuzamuka kwigihe "kitigeze kibaho", ntibazi ko abadandaza bo muri Amerika bahura n "ikibazo cyo kubara" kuva aho interineti itangiriye.
Ku wa mbere, Michael Burry, umukinnyi wa filime “The Big Short”, wari uzwi cyane mu guhanura ibibazo by’ubukungu mu 2008, yavuze ko “Bullwhip Effect” mu bucuruzi bw’ibicuruzwa bizatuma ihinduka ry’izamuka ry’inyungu za Federasiyo.
None, Ingaruka ya Bullwhip niyihe?Yerekeza ku kwongera no guhindagurika kw'ibisabwa murwego rwo gutanga.
Murwego rwo gutanga, impinduka nto mubisabwa zizagurwa intambwe ku yindi kuva ku bacuruzi kugeza ku bakora ibicuruzwa n'ababitanga, kandi gusangira amakuru ntibishobora kugerwaho neza muri bo.Uku kugoreka no kongera amakuru bisa nkibimasa, kuburyo byiswe "Ingaruka ya Bullwhip".
Umwaka urashize, urwego rwogutanga isoko ku isi rwari mu gihirahiro.Muri kiriya gihe, ibibazo byo kubura isoko byatewe n'icyorezo byari bikomeye.Abacuruzi n’abacuruzi bahise bihutira kugura ibicuruzwa kugira ngo bongere ibicuruzwa byabo kubera gutinya ko byabura ibicuruzwa, ari na byo byatumye “resonate” mu nganda z’ibanze, bityo kuzamura ibiciro no kongera umusaruro icyarimwe.
Icyakora, uko icyifuzo cyagendaga gikonja buhoro buhoro, ibicuruzwa byabacuruzi byiyongereye, ndetse bihutira gukuraho ibicuruzwa birenze urugero, bituma igabanuka ryihuse ryibiciro byibicuruzwa byinshi byingenzi.
Mugihe ibintu byagendaga bitera imbere, ingaruka zagiye buhoro buhoro zinjira murwego rwibanze.
Nk’uko Michael Burry abitangaza ngo ibicuruzwa byatanzwe mbere mu bucuruzi biganisha kuri “Bullwhip Effect”.Ariko, hamwe no gutinda kubisabwa, "Bullwhip Effect" irangira kandi bizatera deflation nyuma yuyu mwaka.Ibi birasaba Federasiyo guhindura inzira igabanya cyangwa no gutangira politiki yo korohereza umubare.
I s t “ Nyuma yo gukangura mbere ”Umutego biragoye guhunga?
"Nyuma yo gukangura bwa mbere" ni umutego usanzwe muri politiki yataye umutwe banki nkuru y’iburengerazuba mu myaka ya za 1970 na 1980.Iracyahiga ibihugu bimwe bikiri mu nzira y'amajyambere kugeza na nubu.
Muri make, uyu mutego ushobora gusobanurwa nka politiki y’ifaranga rya Banki Nkuru ihinduka hagati y’ifaranga rito n’izamuka ryinshi inshuro nyinshi, amaherezo ikananirwa guhuza izo ntego zombi.
Biragaragara ko mu mateka, ibyabaye ko Banki nkuru y’igihugu yagabanije inyungu z’inyungu ako kanya nyuma yo kuzamuka kw’ibiciro bitabaye, kandi birashobora no kubaho kenshi kuruta uko wabitekereza.
Imbonerahamwe yavuzwe haruguru yerekana CPI yo muri Amerika yo hagati mu ntangiriro ya buri cyiciro cya 13 cy’izamuka ry’ibiciro cya Federasiyo mu myaka 70 ishize, ndetse n’agaciro ka CPI mu ntangiriro y’igabanuka ry’inyungu nyuma y’izamuka ry’inyungu.
Imbonerahamwe yerekana ko akenshi haba hari itandukaniro ryamezi ane gusa hagati yizamuka rya Federasiyo iheruka no kugabanuka kwambere.
Byongeye kandi, CPI yo hagati yari ikomeje kugera kuri 4.4% mugihe cyo kugabanuka kwambere kwinyungu, ibyo bikaba byerekana ko ibyemezo bya Federasiyo ku nyungu ahanini bishingiye ku kureba imbere aho gushingira kubibera ubu.
Byongeye kandi, hari ibihe byinshi mumateka mugihe Fed itangiye kugabanya igipimo cyinyungu nubwo ifaranga rikomeza kuba hejuru.
Nubwo amateka adasubiramo gusa, burigihe afite ibyo ahuriyeho.Abasesenguzi benshi bavuze kandi ko bishoboka cyane ko Fed yasubira mu mateka yayo yo “kuzamura ibiciro mbere yo kubigabanya”.
Hashobora kubaho "guhagarara" mubipimo hike uyu mwaka
Ku wa kane, Ishami ry’Ubucuruzi ryatangaje ko izamuka ry’ibiciro bya PCE (Ikoreshwa ry’umuntu ku giti cye) Izamuka ry’ibiciro ryagabanutse kugera kuri 4.7% muri Gicurasi.
Ishusho yavuzwe haruguru nigipimo cya Federasiyo yerekana ifaranga.Gutinda kw'ibiciro bya PCE bivuze ko ifaranga usibye ibiryo n'ingufu bitakiri “hejuru,” kandi hari ibimenyetso byerekana ko ifaranga rikabije.
Hamwe n'umusaruro wimyaka 10 wagabanutse uva kuri 2.973% ugera kuri 2,889%, ntabwo byoroshye gusubira kuri 3%.
Usibye ko hagaragaye ihinduka ry’ifaranga ry’ifaranga, impamvu ikomeye y’igabanuka ry’umusaruro w’ikigega cya Leta ni ibimenyetso bigenda byerekana ko ubukungu bwifashe nabi.
Amasoko yamaze guhangana nibishoboka ko politiki yihuta ya Federasiyo ihinduka.
Abashinzwe ishoramari muri Mauldin Economics batekereza ko Federasiyo ishobora guhagarika inama yayo mu mpera za Nzeri;icyakora, "guhagarara" bishobora gusobanura kuzamura igipimo cya kane aho kuba amanota 50 cyangwa 75.
Tuvuge ko Federasiyo yatekereje ko ifaranga ry’ibanze ryagabanutse kandi azi neza ko ubukungu bwifashe nabi.Muri icyo gihe, barashobora gusubukura politiki yo korohereza umubare nubwo ifaranga ryananiwe kugera ku ntego nziza y’umusaruro wa 2 ku ijana.
Muyandi magambo, birashoboka ko dushobora kubona Federasiyo itinda umuvuduko wo gukomera mbere yumwaka urangiye, mugihe politiki ihinduka kugirango itangire kugabanya ibiciro ntabwo iri kure cyane.
Itangazo: Iyi ngingo yahinduwe na AAA LENDINGS;amwe mumashusho yakuwe kuri enterineti, umwanya wurubuga ntuhagarariwe kandi ntushobora gusubirwamo nta ruhushya.Hariho ingaruka ku isoko kandi ishoramari rigomba kwitonda.Iyi ngingo ntabwo igizwe ninama zishoramari kugiti cye, kandi ntizita ku ntego zihariye zishoramari, uko ubukungu bwifashe cyangwa ibikenerwa nabakoresha kugiti cyabo.Abakoresha bagomba gusuzuma niba ibitekerezo, ibitekerezo cyangwa imyanzuro ikubiye hano ihuye nibibazo byabo.Shora ukurikije ingaruka zawe.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Nyakanga-07-2022