Ntugashukwe na GDP!Niba ihungabana byanze bikunze muri 2023, Fed izagabanya ibiciro?Igipimo cyinyungu kizajya he?
11/07/2022
Ku ya 27 Ukwakira, amakuru ya GDP mu gihembwe cya gatatu yashyizwe ahagaragara.
Igihembwe cya gatatu GDP yazamutse cyane 2,6% umwaka ushize, ntabwo yarenze gusa ibyari byateganijwe ku isoko rya 2,4%, ahubwo yanarangije "ubukungu bwifashe nabi" - bibiri bya kane bikurikiranye by’iterambere rya GDP mu gice cya mbere cy’umwaka.
GDP yavuye mu turere twiza tujya mu karere keza, bivuze ko izamuka ry’inyungu rya Federasiyo atari ryo ryagaragaye ko ribangamiye iterambere ry’ubukungu.
Umuntu arashobora kwibwira ko amakuru meza yubukungu akenshi ari ikimenyetso cyerekana ko Fed izakomeza kuzamura igipimo cyinyungu, ariko isoko ntabwo ryakiriye neza.
Aya makuru ntiyakuyeho ibiteganijwe kuzamuka ku ngingo 75 mu Gushyingo, ariko yongereye ibyifuzo byo kuzamura amanota 50 (umuvuduko wa mbere w’izamuka ry’ibiciro) mu nama yo mu Kuboza.
Impamvu nuko aya makuru asa nkaho ari meza muri rusange yuzuyemo "feint" ukurikije imiterere yihariye.
Nigute "feint" GDP yari mu gihembwe cya gatatu?
Nkuko dushobora kubibona, amafaranga yakoreshejwe ku giti cye nicyo kintu kinini mu bukungu bw’Amerika, ugereranije hafi 60% bya GDP, kandi ni “nkingi” y’iterambere ry’ubukungu muri Amerika.
Ariko kandi, igabanuka ry’umugabane wa GDP ryabazwe n’amafaranga yakoreshejwe ku giti cye mu gihembwe cya gatatu byerekana ko hakomeje kugabanuka mu nkingi y’iterambere ry’ubukungu kandi benshi babibona nk’intangiriro y’ubukungu.
Mubyongeyeho, umuvuduko wubwiyongere bwibindi bikoresho nabyo byagabanutse.None, ninde ushyigikiye iterambere ryubukungu mugihembwe cya gatatu?
Ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga byagize uruhare mu kuzamuka kwa GDP mu gihembwe cya gatatu, bityo rero twavuga ko kuzamuka kwa GDP mu gihembwe cya gatatu byashyigikiwe hafi n’ibyoherezwa mu mahanga “wenyine”.
Impamvu yabyo ni uko Amerika yohereje mu Burayi umubare w’ibikomoka kuri peteroli, gaze n’intwaro kubera amakimbirane akomeje kuba mu Burusiya na Ukraine.
Kubera iyo mpamvu, abahanga mu bukungu bakeka ko iki kintu ari icy'igihe gito kandi ko kitazakomeza mu bihe biri imbere.
Iyi mibare itangaje ya GDP birashoboka ko ari "flashback" mbere yubukungu.
Ni ryari Fed izahindura inguni?
Dukurikije amakuru aheruka gutangwa na Bloomberg, amahirwe yo kuzamuka mu mezi 12 ari imbere aratangaje 100%.
Ishusho Inkomoko: Bloomberg
Ongeraho kuri ibyo kuba impinduka zinyuranye mu mezi 3 n’imyaka 10 y’umusaruro w’inguzanyo z’Amerika, zifatwa nkibipimo byerekana ko ubukungu bwifashe nabi, bigenda byiyongera, kandi ubwoba bw’ubukungu bwongeye kugira isoko ku isoko.
Kuruhande rwinyuma, izamuka ryinyungu rihatirwa mubibazo - Federasiyo izagabanya ibiciro mugihe habaye ihungabana?
Mubyukuri, mubihe bine byasubiye inyuma mumyaka 30 ishize, Fed yahinduye igipimo cyinyungu muburyo runaka.
Kubera ko ihungabana rikunze guherekezwa no kwiyongera k'ubushomeri no kugabanuka kw'abaguzi, Federasiyo itangira kugabanya ibiciro nyuma y'amezi atatu kugeza kuri atandatu nyuma yuko inyungu ziyongereye mu rwego rwo kuzamura ubukungu.
Nubwo Federasiyo ishobora kwanga guhindura umuvuduko mwinshi no kugabanya ibiciro, niba ihungabana rikomeje mu mwaka utaha, birashoboka ko Fed izahitamo mu mezi atandatu y’ibiciro igera ku giciro cyayo cya nyuma cyo guhagarika kuzamura cyangwa kugabanya ibiciro kugira ngo ubukungu bwifashe neza.
Igipimo cyinyungu kizagabanuka ryari?
Mu myaka mirongo itatu ishize, igipimo cy’inguzanyo cyagabanutse igihe cyose ubukungu bwifashe nabi.
Ariko, iyo Fed igabanije igipimo cyinyungu, igipimo cyinguzanyo muri rusange ntikigabanuka vuba vuba.
Mu bihe bine byashize, ibiciro byinguzanyo byimyaka 30 byagabanutse ku kigereranyo cya 1% mugihe cyumwaka nigice cyatangiye.
Kugura abaguzi murugo ubu biri hasi cyane, ariko kubandi benshi bashobora kugura, ihungabana rikomeye rishobora kuzana ibyago byo gutakaza akazi cyangwa umushahara muto, bikarushaho kwiyongera.
Kuzamuka kw'amanota 75 shingiro mu Gushyingo ntibyigeze bivuguruzanya, kandi ikibazo gikomeye ni ukumenya niba Federasiyo izerekana “taper” mu Kuboza.
Niba Federasiyo yerekana ko umuvuduko wo kuzamuka kw’ibiciro mu mpera zuyu mwaka, igipimo cy’inguzanyo nacyo kizahumeka icyo gihe.
Itangazo: Iyi ngingo yahinduwe na AAA LENDINGS;amwe mumashusho yakuwe kuri enterineti, umwanya wurubuga ntuhagarariwe kandi ntushobora gusubirwamo nta ruhushya.Hariho ingaruka ku isoko kandi ishoramari rigomba kwitonda.Iyi ngingo ntabwo igizwe ninama zishoramari kugiti cye, kandi ntizita ku ntego zihariye zishoramari, uko ubukungu bwifashe cyangwa ibikenerwa nabakoresha kugiti cyabo.Abakoresha bagomba gusuzuma niba ibitekerezo, ibitekerezo cyangwa imyanzuro ikubiye hano ihuye nibibazo byabo.Shora ukurikije ingaruka zawe.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Ugushyingo-08-2022