75bp Kwiyongera, Inguzanyo Zinguzanyo Zagabanutse! Kuki isoko yafashe inyandiko "yagabanijwe"?
08/08/2022
Banki nkuru yigihugu irahinduka
Banki nkuru y’igihugu yatangaje mu nama ya komite ishinzwe amasoko yo muri Nyakanga (FOMC) muri Nyakanga ko igipimo cy’inyungu kizakomeza kongererwa amanota 75 y’ibanze, bigatuma igipimo cy’amafaranga ya leta kigera kuri 2.25% -2.5%.
Byari ibintu bisanzwe bizwi ko Ububiko bwa Amerika bwazamutse kandi umusaruro wa Treasury wagabanutse kuko 75 bp yaje neza.Nibyo, byari inkuru isa mumanama ya Gicurasi na Kamena FOMC.
Ni ubwambere mu myaka 40 ishize Federasiyo yazamuye ibiciro kuri 75 bp ikurikiranye.Nibyiza kuvuga ko Fed yarakaze bihagije, ariko kuki isoko yafashe inyandiko "Igipimo-Guca"?
Hariho impamvu ebyiri zingenzi zatumye isoko ryifata neza.Imwe muriyo nuko kuzamura igipimo byari byiza mubiteganijwe - ubwumvikane bwo kuzamura 75bp bwari bwarabaye mbere yinama.Indi mpamvu ni uko Umuyobozi wa Federasiyo ya Federasiyo Powell yabitangarije mu kiganiro n'abanyamakuru nyuma y'inama ati: "birashoboka ko bidakwiye ko umuvuduko wo kuzamuka kw'ibiciro wiyongera".
Powell: Birashoboka ko bizaba byiza kugabanya umuvuduko wo kwiyongera.
Kuvuga gusa "birashoboka ko bizadindiza umuvuduko niba kwiyongera" byari bihagije kugira ngo utangire kwishimisha ku masoko, ndetse wasaga nkaho wazamutseho 75bp nka "kugabanuka kwa 25bp".
Hamwe nogutegereza gukomeye, Federasiyo yatweretse ko ibyateganijwe ari ngombwa cyane kuruta ibintu byongeye.
Amasoko yakunze guhindura inzira bukeye bwaho nyuma yinama ashingiye kubyavuzwe mbere, kandi imiyoborere ya Federasiyo ya Federasiyo irashobora kugira ingaruka kumyumvire yigihe gito yisoko.
Inkomoko:https://www.cmegroup.com/ubucuruzi/inyungu-yamakuru/ibara-kuri-fomc.html
Kugeza ubu ariko, isoko ntirigaragaza ibimenyetso byerekana ko rihindutse, kandi ibiteganijwe kuzamuka gahoro gahoro bisa nkibisobanuro byumvikana.
Hoba hariho ihungabana?
Ishami ry’ubucuruzi ryatangaje ko ku wa kane ibicuruzwa by’imbere mu gihugu, urugero rw’amafaranga yakoreshejwe mu bicuruzwa na serivisi mu bukungu, byagabanutse ku mwaka ku gipimo cya 0.9%.
Iri gabanuka rikurikira igabanuka rya 1,6% mu bikorwa by’ubukungu mu mezi atatu ya mbere y’umwaka kandi bivuze ko Amerika ishobora kuba iri mu bihe bya tekinike - bibiri bya kane by’umusaruro rusange w’uyu mwaka.
Muri Reta zunzubumwe za Amerika, umurwi uri muri NBER uhamagarira rwose ihungabana ni komite ishinzwe gukundana nubucuruzi.Ariko ibyemezo bya komite akenshi biza bitinze.(Muri 2020, komite ntiyatangaje ko ubukungu bwifashe nabi kugeza ubwo ubukungu bwifashe nabi kandi miliyoni 22 z'abaturage bakaba barabuze akazi mu mezi.)
NBER yibanze cyane kumurimo kandi birasa nkisoko ryakazi muri Amerika rishyushye.White House, yagiye isubiza inyuma igitekerezo cy'uko hari ubukungu bwifashe nabi, yagaragaje ko ubushomeri buri ku gipimo gito cya 3,6%, nubwo ishami ry'ubucuruzi ryasanze ubukungu bwaragabanutse mu gihembwe cya kabiri gishize.
Ibyo ari byo byose, nta gushidikanya ko ubukungu bugenda buhoro, kandi iteganyagihe ry’isoko ku izamuka ry’ibiciro muri uyu mwaka ryatangiye kugabanuka, mu gihe ibiteganijwe kugabanuka ry’ibiciro byiyongereye.
Wall Street iteganya ko ibiciro bizagera kuri 3.25% mu mpera zumwaka, bivuze ko izamuka ry’ibiciro bitatu bisigaye muri uyu mwaka ritazarenza 90 bp yose hamwe.
Fed irasa nkaho igomba gusuzuma niba igomba kureka kuzamuka kwinshi.
Igipimo cy'inguzanyo kizagabanuka?
Umusaruro w’imyaka 10 w’ikigega cya Leta wagabanutse uva kuri 2.7% ugera kuri 2,658%, ukaba muto cyane kuva muri Mata, kubera ko ibiteganijwe kuzamuka ku nyungu byakomeje kugabanuka muri uyu mwaka.
Igipimo giheruka ku nguzanyo yimyaka 30 yagabanutse kugera kuri 5.3% (Freddie Mac)
Nkuko ibintu bimeze, igipimo cyinguzanyo cyerekanye ko cyamanutse, kandi birashoboka ko ingingo yo hejuru yagiye.
Isoko rirateganya kugeza ubu, umuvuduko wa Federasiyo yo kuzamuka kw'ibiciro gukurikira uzaba gutya:
Kuzamuka 50bp muri Nzeri, biherekejwe no kugenda gahoro;
Kuzamuka 25bp mu Gushyingo;
Kuzamuka kwa 25bp mu Kuboza hanyuma ibiciro bizagabanuka umwaka utaha.
Mu yandi magambo, Federasiyo ishobora gutangira kugabanya umuvuduko w’inyungu guhera muri Nzeri, ariko umuvuduko wo kwiyongera gukurikira biterwa namakuru yo muri Nyakanga na Kanama.
Ariko niba imibare y’ifaranga itamanutse ku buryo bugaragara, ingaruka z’ubukungu zishobora gutuma Federasiyo izamura inyungu z’inyungu zo kurwanya ifaranga, kandi biteganijwe ko igipimo cy’inguzanyo kizagabanuka kurushaho.
Itangazo: Iyi ngingo yahinduwe na AAA LENDINGS;amwe mumashusho yakuwe kuri enterineti, umwanya wurubuga ntuhagarariwe kandi ntushobora gusubirwamo nta ruhushya.Hariho ingaruka ku isoko kandi ishoramari rigomba kwitonda.Iyi ngingo ntabwo igizwe ninama zishoramari kugiti cye, kandi ntizita ku ntego zihariye zishoramari, uko ubukungu bwifashe cyangwa ibikenerwa nabakoresha kugiti cyabo.Abakoresha bagomba gusuzuma niba ibitekerezo, ibitekerezo cyangwa imyanzuro ikubiye hano ihuye nibibazo byabo.Shora ukurikije ingaruka zawe.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Kanama-07-2022