Nzeri Umuvuduko wo Kugabanuka wikubye kabiri, Isoko rirahinda umushyitsi: Igiciro cy'inguzanyo kizamuka!
09/12/2022
Kuzamuka kw'ibiciro gukubita cyane, Shrinkage ikanga
Amezi atatu ashize, Banki nkuru y’igihugu yatangaje ko kugabanya impapuro zerekana ko nazo ziri ku murongo w'ibyigwa nyuma yo gutangira kuzamuka kw'ibiciro.
Dukurikije gahunda yatangajwe na Federasiyo, ingano y’iki cyiciro cyo kugabanuka izaba nini kuruta iyindi yose: miliyari 47.5 z'amadolari buri kwezi mu gihe cy’amezi atatu guhera muri Kamena, harimo miliyari 30 z’amadolari y’inguzanyo za Leta na miliyari 17.5 z’amadolari muri MBS (impapuro zishingiye ku nguzanyo).
Isoko ryatinyaga cyane ikitazwi mugihe cyo kugabanuka kuruta izamuka ry’ibiciro, erega, ingaruka ku isoko ryo gufata ubwo buryo bukabije bwo kugabanya impapuro ntizishobora gusuzugurwa.
Ariko ubu amezi atatu arashize, kandi ugereranije n’izamuka ry’ibiciro bya Federasiyo ya Federasiyo mu mwaka wose, icyarimwe icyarimwe cyo kugabanya kugabanuka gisa nkaho kidahari, kandi mbere hari n’ibitekerezo byinshi byavugaga ko Fed itatangiye rwose kugabanya impapuro zerekana. , ariko ahubwo yari yihutiye kwagura impapuro ziringaniza kugirango ihame ryimigabane nisoko ryamazu.
Nyamara gushakisha ni mubyukuri gimmick yahimbwe na Fed?Mubyukuri, Federasiyo iratera imbere hamwe na taping, gusa nimbaraga nke zidakabije kurenza uko abantu bose babitekerezaga.
Nkuko byari byitezwe na Federasiyo, biteganijwe ko kuva mu kwezi kwa gatandatu kugeza muri Kanama biteganijwe ko bizaba miliyari 142.5 z'amadolari, ariko kugeza ubu umutungo umaze kugereranywa na miliyari 63.6 z'amadolari.
Inkomoko y'amashusho:https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
Hafi ya kimwe cya kabiri cya gahunda yambere yo kugabanuka - ugereranije n’ibitero biremereye ku izamuka ry’inyungu, Fed isa nkaho yifuza cyane mu bijyanye no kugabanuka.
Kwirinda ihungabana, umuvuduko muke wo kugabanuka mubyiciro byambere
Kuba hari icyiciro cya mbere cyo kugabanuka kuva muri Kamena kugeza Kanama ahanini biterwa n’uko kugabanuka kw’ubunini bw’umutungo wa Federasiyo byari bike cyane kuruta uko byari byitezwe, kandi bigaragara ko isoko ryagize ingaruka cyane kuri politiki yo kuzamura ibiciro bya Federasiyo.
Mubyukuri, mu mezi atatu yambere, kugabanya umwenda wa Federasiyo muri Treasury ahanini bihuye na gahunda yambere, ariko imigabane ya MBS ntabwo igwa ahubwo izamuka, ibyo bikaba byaratumye ibibazo byinshi bibaza Federasiyo: kugabanuka kwagiye he?
Mubyukuri, isoko rya MBS ryari rimaze kugurishwa cyane mbere yuko Federasiyo ifata icyemezo kijyanye no gushakisha.
Kugeza ubu, muri uyu mwaka, igipimo cy’inguzanyo cy’imyaka 30 cyikubye hafi kabiri kuva kuri 3% yambere, ibyo bikaba byaratumye ubwiyongere bukabije bw’abaguzi b’amazu, aho bamwe babona ko amafaranga y’inguzanyo ya buri kwezi yiyongereyeho 30%.Isoko ryimitungo itimukanwa vuba, kandi igabanuka ryigurisha ryamazu riragenda ryiyongera ukwezi.
Inguzanyo.https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
Fed ifite imigabane igera kuri 32% ku isoko rya MBS miliyoni 8.4 z'amadolari, kandi nk'umushoramari munini ku isoko rya MBS, gufungura imyuzure yo kugurisha imyenda mu isoko nk'iryo bishobora kurushaho kuzamura igipimo cy'inguzanyo bityo bigatuma isoko ry'umutungo utimukanwa rigera gukonja vuba cyane, bikaba ari akaga.
Kubera iyo mpamvu, Federasiyo yagabanije cyane umuvuduko wo gushakisha mu mezi atatu ashize, bikaba bishoboka cyane ko harebwa ingaruka z’ubukungu.
Isoko ntirishobora kwirengagiza kwihuta kugabanuka
Guhera ku ya 1 Nzeri, amafaranga y’umwenda w’Amerika no kugabanuka kwa MBS azikuba kabiri kandi azamurwa agera kuri miliyari 95 ku kwezi.
Raporo nyinshi zahanuye ko isoko izatangira kumva "ubukonje" bwo gushakisha guhera muri uku kwezi, ifoto ni déjà vu, ariko isoko ntishobora gukomeza "kwirengagiza" gukuba kabiri ubunini bwa taping nyuma ya Nzeri.
Nk’uko ubushakashatsi bwa Federasiyo bubigaragaza, kugabanuka byazamura imyaka 10 y’umusaruro w’inguzanyo z’Amerika ku manota agera kuri 60 mu gihe cy’umwaka, ibyo bikaba bihwanye n’izamuka ry’ibiciro bibiri kugeza kuri bitatu 25.
Hamwe na Powell yongeye gushimangira imyifatire ye "kuzamura igipimo cya hawkish", nubwo hasigaye izamuka ry’ibiciro bitatu gusa muri Nzeri, Ugushyingo na Ukuboza, ariko mu rwego rwo guhuzagurika kw’umuvuduko wikubye kabiri no kuzamuka kw’ibiciro, turateganya ko imyaka 10 y’Amerika muri Amerika umusaruro ushobora guca mu gipimo gishya cya 3.5% nyuma yuyu mwaka, igipimo cy’inguzanyo gitinya gukoresha mu cyiciro gishya cy’ibibazo bikomeye.
Itangazo: Iyi ngingo yahinduwe na AAA LENDINGS;amwe mumashusho yakuwe kuri enterineti, umwanya wurubuga ntuhagarariwe kandi ntushobora gusubirwamo nta ruhushya.Hariho ingaruka ku isoko kandi ishoramari rigomba kwitonda.Iyi ngingo ntabwo igizwe ninama zishoramari kugiti cye, kandi ntizita ku ntego zihariye zishoramari, uko ubukungu bwifashe cyangwa ibikenerwa nabakoresha kugiti cyabo.Abakoresha bagomba gusuzuma niba ibitekerezo, ibitekerezo cyangwa imyanzuro ikubiye hano ihuye nibibazo byabo.Shora ukurikije ingaruka zawe.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Nzeri-13-2022